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History of Recent Philippine Politics --former President Joseph Estrada to the present state of the Philippines and the current political "crisis," under President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo

The Philippines has some political and economic problems, but they do not seem to be a threat to me here in Cebu. All I know is, the dollar gets stronger every time some radical group makes a bomb threat in Manila.

History of Recent Philippine Politics --former President Joseph Estrada to the present state of the Philippines and the current political "crisis," under President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo

The Philippines has some political and economic problems, but they do not seem to be a threat to me here in Cebu. All I know is, the dollar gets stronger every time some radical group makes a bomb threat in Manila.

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo
in Native Hill Tribes Dress

There has been isolated violence, mostly in Manila and in a small part of the large southern island of Mindanao. It is now under control despite the recent kidnappings. Most feel that President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has the situation well in hand. But when you are dealing with terrorists, who knows?

There is hope that the country can once again become an Asian economic tiger under President Arroyo, the daughter of a farmer who himself became president.

Cebu Provincial Capitol

Arroyo has a Ph.D. in economics, and she has impressed many observers with her integrity, coolness under fire, and willingness to tackle the country’s problems.

Latest Political Situational bearing Safety in the Philippines

On this past Monday I attended a meeting held by a faith-based group on this very subject - what is really going on. My guess - maybe 250 people - and yes, I was the only kano [Americano] there.

It was a very organized, detailed description of the current situation - the players and their family interweaving - and probability assessments of various potential outcomes.

The study and presentation was done by a Filipino Jesuit. For those of you not familiar with this priestly order - Jesuits have been the intelligentsia (really smart folks) of the Roman Church for centuries (as well as its radicals - they've been kicked out of several European, South - Central American countries by governments - and sometimes by the Church itself - on and off throughout history - typically, for challenging the status quo on the side of the 'Have Nots' (which is another discussion).

BOTTOM LINE of the Presentation - It appears that the President *will survive* the current storm - but not likely to serve until the end of her term. Currently it is likely the military will stay on the sidelines.

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Dear Ron,

Thank you for the very informative post. That is the way I see it to, as the group you attended sees it.

An interesting tidbit that I was unaware of - many folks do not like the idea of the President leaving because of the second in charge was an employee (and some suspect still is) of one of large economic oligarchy families.

@True, Ron, and he has a lot of political debts and very little experience. As a news caster reading the news he was outstanding: "Magandang Gabi Bayan!", (Good Evening Countrymen!)boom every night from the TV. He was a charmer, cam in first in the Senate race, a perfect pick to go up again Loren Lagarta for VP, a person with a similar background who is screaming election fraud now and did from day one. There are always and there always be claims of election fraud even of the College of Cardinals counted the votes. The loser is always cheated. We see that in life, don't we.
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But all bets are off if something 'crazy' happens - a Martin Luther King or Watts scenario. Then the probability of the military becoming involved increases.

@Always a possibility, Ron. But I feel very unlikely unless the opposition can get people stirred up enough to sway the military. If the military stick with her and the constitution as predicted, it will happen. Filipinos really don't want to fight one another. They do love to argue politics.
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There is a reasonable probability that something will change to push governing authority down to lower levels - somewhat along the "Manila is not the Philippines" theme - perhaps not the "Republic of" - but more akin to the USA system - States and a Federal government.

@You opinion, "Good idea," is s good one. As it is most provinces only have Representaives in Manila, (the Philippine's Washington's D. C.,actually Quezon City, Metro Manila) It would be good to have at least one senator from each province. But there will always be corruption in any large organization, certainly a government.

MY OPINION - Probably a good idea. My understanding is there are less then a hundred folks in Manila running the whole place (and skim).There appears to be a growing ground swell that 'enough is enough'.
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Reportedly, an outline of the Presentation will be available electronically (probably PDF format). I requested one - and if it comes I'll forward to Don - and he can post it somewhere so that List Members here or abroad can access if further interested.
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@Thank you Ron for the file if you can get it. And thank you for a very informative and balanced post. Right now we just don't know. But I don't think much will change. Filipinos are Filipinos, forgiving and tolerant. If Senator Lacson, not designated the contender though under indictment for capital offence himself and the united opposition beat Gloria down too far the Filipino people may start feeling sorry for her. There could be a favorable backlash created for the President. Everybody like to see the underdog come back.

President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in the Top Ten of World's Most Powerful Women Speaks:

MANILA, Philippines -- The days of "people power" uprisings to remove Philippine leaders are over, scandal-plagued President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo said Friday, July 29. reiterating that only a shift to a parliamentary system can stop the country's democracy from sliding into anarchy.

In a third day of interviews with local media, Arroyo -- facing impeachment -- lamented being subjected to trial by media over charges that she rigged last year's election and that her family took bribes.

"If we do not address this finally, our politics will deteriorate," she told DZRH radio. "Imagine if we have president after president being toppled, president after president being tried by publicity, president after president being impeached."

In her state of the nation address on Monday, Arroyo signaled the start of "the great debate on charter change" to shift to a parliamentary system. Such a move would fuse the legislative and executive branches of government and help stop gridlocks caused by quarrels between the president and the U.S.-style bicameral Congress, Arroyo said.

"While Myanmar is trying to strengthen its democracy, our democracy is weakening and turning into anarchy," she said. "We have to strengthen our democracy. In the past it was said that something is wrong with the system. But now it has become so wrong that the system itself is wrong."

Arroyo is embroiled in her worst political crisis since taking power after massive protests ousted President Joseph Estrada in 2001. In 1986, a "people power" revolt toppled late dictator Ferdinand Marcos.

She has apologized for speaking to an election official before she was declared the winner of the May 2004 ballot, but denied manipulating the count. She said she's ready to face an impeachment trial.

Some members of her own Cabinet, business groups, activist organizations, the political opposition and ex-President Corazon Aquino, a former ally, have demanded her resignation. Tens of thousands have joined street protests, but the crowds have only been a fraction of the size of those in 1986 and 2001.

Opposition lawmakers on Monday filed an impeachment complaint against Arroyo for allegedly violating the constitution, betraying public trust, corruption and bribery. They urged her to resign to avoid a painful Senate trial, claiming they have plenty of witnesses and piles of documentary evidence to bring her down.

Arroyo only touched on the latest allegations against her: that regional election officials received 2 million pesos (US$35,700; euro29,500) in bribes to rig the polls, in her presence in a hotel room.

"No one has given any bribe in my presence, that's all I can say," she said. "But enough said because I am an accused and I should heed the advice of my lawyers not to speak about the charges against me."

Arroyo earlier asked her husband and son to leave the country after they were both accused of receiving illegal gambling payoffs, along with her brother-in-law.

She said her 37th wedding anniversary on Tuesday would be sad without her husband.

"I did not become a president to enjoy," she said. "You must be prepared to suffer if necessary."